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Scientific paper

Text

Growth, degrowth and climate change: A scenario analysis.

Author:
Peter A. Victor

Entry type:
Scientific paper

Year of publication:
2012

Publishers:
Ecological Economics

Language:
English

External content:
To the content

Economic growth, Climate change, No growth, Degrowth, Scenarios

Abstract: The paper proceeds with a discussion of the interplay of scale and intensity in determining greenhouse gas emissions. This is followed by the presentation of several macroeconomic scenarios using LowGrow, a simulation model of the Canadian economy. The scenarios considered are ‘business as usual’ which is a projection into the future of past trends, ‘selective growth’ in which differential growth rates are applied to parts of the economy according to their direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions, and ‘degrowth’ where the average GDP/capita of Canadians is reduced towards a level more consistent with a world economy the size of which respects global environmental limits. The paper ends with a comparison of the scenarios.



Ecological Economics, Volume 84, December 2012, Pages 206–212, The Economics of Degrowth

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